On macroeconomic characteristics of pharmaceutical generics and the potential for manufacturing and consumption under fuzzy conditions

Gascón, Fernando; de la Fuente, David; Puente, Javier; Lozano, Jesús

doi:10.1016/j.artmed.2007.07.001

« Previous Next »Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
Volume 41, Issue 3 , Pages 223-235, November 2007

On macroeconomic characteristics of pharmaceutical generics and the potential for manufacturing and consumption under fuzzy conditions

Fernando Gascón
- Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Accounting Department, University of Oviedo, Campus Cristo s/n, 33006 Oviedo, Spain
David de la Fuente
- Polytechnic School of Engineering-Gijón, Business Administration and Accounting Department, University of Oviedo, Campus Viesques s/n, 33204 Gijón, Asturias, Spain
Javier Puente
- Polytechnic School of Engineering-Gijón, Business Administration and Accounting Department, University of Oviedo, Campus Viesques s/n, 33204 Gijón, Asturias, Spain
- Corresponding author at: Escuela Politécnica Superior de Ingeniería de Gijón, Universidad de Oviedo, Campus Viesques s/n, 33204 Gijón, Asturias, Spain. Tel.: +34 985181996; fax: +34 985182010.
Jesús Lozano
- Polytechnic School of Engineering-Gijón, Business Administration and Accounting Department, University of Oviedo, Campus Viesques s/n, 33204 Gijón, Asturias, Spain

Received 30 October 2006; received in revised form 15 June 2007; accepted 6 July 2007.

Summary

Objective

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that is useful for analyzing, from a macroeconomic perspective, the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply features of the market of pharmaceutical generics. In order to determine the potential consumption and the potential production of pharmaceutical generics in different countries, two fuzzy decision support systems are proposed.

Methods and materials

Two fuzzy decision support systems, both based on the Mamdani model, were applied in this paper. These systems, generated by Matlab Toolbox ‘Fuzzy’ (v. 2.0), are able to determine the potential of a country for the manufacturing or the consumption of pharmaceutical generics. The systems make use of three macroeconomic input variables.

Results

In an empirical application of our proposed methodology, the potential towards consumption and manufacturing in Holland, Sweden, Italy and Spain has been estimated from national indicators. Cross-country comparisons are made and graphical surfaces are analyzed in order to interpret the results.

Conclusions

The main contribution of this work is the development of a methodology that is useful for analyzing aggregate demand and aggregate supply characteristics of pharmaceutical generics. The methodology is valid for carrying out a systematic analysis of the potential generics have at a macrolevel in different countries. The main advantages of the use of fuzzy decision support systems in the context of pharmaceutical generics are the flexibility in the construction of the system, the speed in interpreting the results offered by the inference and surface maps and the ease with which a sensitivity analysis of the potential behavior of a given country may be performed.

Keywords: Pharmaceutical generics, Aggregate demand and supply, Fuzzy decision-making systems, Forecasting consumption and production, Uncertainty